As of October 2026, ADM no longer looks cheap on trailing earnings, but it looks more reasonably priced against the company's own raised 2026 forecast, and that forecast leans heavily on crush and biofuel margins that policy and trade can change quickly. The shares are up about 41% this year, the dividend has grown for 53 consecutive years, and the next real test arrives with third-quarter results on November 3.

Where $ADM stands, and what it costs

Archer-Daniels-Midland traded at $83.29 at midday on Friday, October 16, 2026, according to Financial Modeling Prep market data. That compares with $59.05 at the first close of the year on January 2, a gain of 41.05%. When this article first ran on March 26, the stock closed at $72.33, so it has added 15.15% since then.

The advance has not been a straight line. The highest close of 2026 was $88.09 on September 17, and the stock now sits about 5.4% below it ($83.29 / $88.09 − 1 = −5.45%). The 52-week range runs from $55.58 to $88.75, and the market value is roughly $40.1 billion. Over the same January-to-October stretch, the S&P 500 moved from 6,858.48 to 7,698.66, a gain of about 12.3%, per FMP. A food-processing company beating the broad market by that margin is unusual, and it is worth understanding why before calling the stock either cheap or expensive.

A trailing P/E near 23 is not a bargain multiple for a commodity processor. It reflects a weak stretch in 2025. FMP shows diluted EPS of $0.22 in the third quarter of 2025 and $0.94 in the fourth, followed by $0.62 in the first quarter of 2026 and $1.87 in the second. Those four quarters add up to $3.65, and $83.29 / $3.65 ≈ 22.8, matching the FMP ratio.

The forward picture looks different. On August 4, ADM raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $5.15 to $5.60, up from $4.15 to $4.70. In February, the initial range had been $3.60 to $4.25. At the new midpoint of $5.375, the stock trades at about 15.5 times expected adjusted earnings ($83.29 / $5.375). The price-to-sales ratio below 0.5 is normal for a high-volume, thin-margin business: ADM keeps roughly two cents of net profit per dollar of revenue, so small changes in margins produce large swings in earnings.

The second quarter: what drove the turn

ADM's second-quarter release shows how quickly the picture changed. Net earnings were $908 million, against $219 million a year earlier. Diluted EPS was $1.87 versus $0.45, and adjusted EPS was $1.84 versus $0.93. Total segment operating profit rose 75% to $1.45 billion from $830 million. Revenue grew more modestly, to $22.68 billion from $21.19 billion, about 7.0%, per FMP.

• Ag Services & Oilseeds: operating profit of $867 million, up 129% from $379 million. Crushing alone went from $33 million to $363 million, and Ag Services rose to $293 million from $113 million. Equity earnings from Wilmar fell 22% to $60 million.
• Carbohydrate Solutions: $411 million, up 22% from $337 million. Vantage Corn Processors, which includes ethanol, rose to $85 million from $33 million, while Starches & Sweeteners grew 7% to $326 million.
• Nutrition: $172 million, up 51% from $114 million.

ADM credited the finalized 2026 and 2027 Renewable Volume Obligations under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, set in March 2026, along with higher global energy prices, roughly 5% higher global oilseed volumes and the return of its Barcarena, Brazil export terminal to full operations. The company also disclosed about $100 million of net positive mark-to-market and timing impacts, mainly in Crushing. Chair and CEO Juan Luciano said the results "give us confidence to again raise our 2026 earnings outlook."

One figure tempers the headline. Operating cash flow for the first six months was $1.30 billion, down from $3.96 billion a year earlier, though cash flow before working capital changes rose to $1.8 billion from $1.2 billion.

The dividend record, verified

ADM's February 3, 2026 earnings release announced a quarterly dividend of 52.0 cents per share, up from 51.0 cents, and described it as the company's 377th consecutive quarterly payment and its 53rd consecutive year of dividend growth. FMP records $0.52 payments with ex-dates of February 17, May 20 and August 19, 2026.

Annualized, $0.52 a quarter is $2.08, a yield of about 2.50% at the October 16 midday price ($2.08 / $83.29). The one-cent raise was an increase of about 1.96% ($0.01 / $0.51), a modest step that suggests management is protecting the streak rather than chasing yield. Against the guidance midpoint, the payout would be about 39% of expected adjusted earnings ($2.08 / $5.375 = 38.7%), which leaves room even if margins cool. Readers tracking income names can find more in our Dividends coverage.

How ADM compares with Bunge

Price data are from FMP; guidance is from each company's second-quarter release. Bunge reported second-quarter GAAP EPS of $3.47 versus $2.61, and adjusted EPS of $2.00 versus $1.31, and it raised its full-year outlook to $9.25 to $9.75 from $9.00 to $9.50. It also completed its $2 billion buyback tied to the Viterra transaction. On that guidance, Bunge trades at about 11.2 times ($106.86 / $9.50).

The gap in performance tracks the gap in revisions. ADM's guidance midpoint rose 21.5% in August, from $4.425 to $5.375, while Bunge's rose 2.7%, from $9.25 to $9.50. Investors have paid ADM for the size of its upgrade; Bunge is the cheaper stock on forward earnings, but it has given back most of its first-half gain.

Risks worth weighing

• Crush margins can reverse. A crushing profit swing from $33 million to $363 million in one year, including roughly $100 million of mark-to-market and timing effects, is the kind of gain that does not repeat on schedule.
• Biofuel policy. ADM tied much of its strength to the Renewable Fuel Standard volumes finalized in March and to ethanol margins that include policy incentives. A change in Washington could move those margins as fast as the March decision did.
• Trade with China. On September 25, 24/7 Wall St. reported Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the U.S.-China trade truce would be extended by two months, and that China was meeting its soybean commitments but was behind on other farm purchases. The same report quoted Luciano: "I think China wants to honor the commitment of 25 million tons of soybean this year." Commitments of that kind can shift with diplomacy.
• Softer pockets. Wilmar's contribution fell 22% and Starches & Sweeteners grew only 7% in the second quarter.
• Interest rates. The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, which raises the bar for a stock yielding about 2.5%.

So, is ADM undervalued?

The evidence supports a narrower answer than the original question invited. On trailing earnings, at about 22.8 times, ADM is not undervalued. On management's raised 2026 forecast, at about 15.5 times with a 2.5% yield and a 53-year dividend growth record, the valuation looks more reasonable for a business that sells essential inputs. The catch is that the forecast rests on margins that depend on government biofuel rules and on Chinese purchasing, two factors no investor can underwrite with confidence. Bunge offers similar exposure at a lower forward multiple, though with weaker momentum in its estimates.

ADM said it will release third-quarter results on November 3, 2026. That report will show whether the second quarter was a new baseline or a peak. For broader context, see our Markets section and the latest coverage at Wall Street Conservative.

Updated October 16, 2026: expanded with current market data, results and developments since publication.