2 Space Stocks That Could Be the Next Intuitive Machines

On February 22, 2024, Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) made headlines as it successfully landed its uncrewed vehicle, Odysseus, on the moon. While the landing faced challenges—most notably, the vehicle toppled after landing, hindering communication with Earth—it achieved a feat that the U.S. hadn’t accomplished in over half a century: a successful lunar landing by a private commercial company. This achievement not only bolstered Intuitive Machines’ reputation but also positioned the company favorably for future contracts related to lunar payloads. Following its landing, Intuitive Machines secured a $117 million contract earlier in the month and a colossal $4.8 billion contract just days later.

With Intuitive Machines paving the way, other space companies are eager to capitalize on the moon exploration trend. Two contenders aiming to duplicate Intuitive Machines’ success are Firefly Aerospace and ispace.

Firefly Aerospace and the Blue Ghost Lander

The first company vying for a lunar landing is the privately owned Firefly Aerospace. In November 2024, the company plans to utilize a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket to launch its Blue Ghost lunar lander, loaded with 10 scientific experiment payloads, on a mission to the moon. A key question arises: Why isn’t Firefly using its own rocket for this endeavor? The answer lies in the current limitations of Firefly’s Alpha launch vehicle, which isn’t capable of carrying Blue Ghost to the moon. However, with the impending rollout of a new Medium Launch Vehicle developed in collaboration with Northrop Grumman, Firefly may gain an economic edge by keeping rocket costs in-house rather than relying on external providers.

ispace and the Hakuto Resilience

The second contender is Japan’s ispace, renowned for its attempts to land on the moon. In 2022, the company’s first attempt using a Hakuto lander ended in a crash due to software glitches that depleted fuel and compromised braking capabilities. In December 2024, ispace plans to make a second attempt with a new Hakuto lander named “Resilience,” which will hitch a ride on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. This mission aims to deliver six payloads, including a small Tenacity rover, to the lunar surface.

Looking Ahead: Intuitive Machines’ Future Plans

Adding to the excitement, Intuitive Machines aims to launch its second lunar lander, IM-2, potentially as early as the fourth quarter of 2024. This sets the stage for a thrilling race among Firefly, ispace, and Intuitive Machines—not just for who will replicate the lunar landing but also whether Intuitive Machines can achieve a second successful landing at the same time as its competitors attempt their first.

Challenges in Space Launches

However, it is essential to note that these launch dates are merely targets. Delays are common, influenced by factors such as development hiccups, the readiness of payloads, and unpredictable weather conditions. Space journalist Eric Berger highlights this uncertainty in his book “In Reentry,” comparing the optimistic timelines of space companies to a hypothetical journey from SpaceX’s headquarters to Malibu hitting nothing but “green lights.” Therefore, while there’s a chance of up to three moon landings in the upcoming months, investors should remain cautious and mindful of potential postponements.

Implications for Investors

For investors, the scenarios in the coming months could yield various outcomes. Under the most optimistic scenario, if all three landers successfully reach the moon, Intuitive Machines would benefit, especially if Odysseus lands upright this time. However, this success could disrupt Intuitive Machines’ monopoly on commercial moon landings, introducing competitors like Firefly and ispace and potentially leading to price reductions and delayed profits.

Interestingly, a successful landing by either Firefly or ispace might ignite interest in their initial public offerings (IPOs), paving the way for more space-related investment opportunities. In fact, Firefly has hinted that it might be contemplating an IPO in the future. Conversely, a complete failure of all three landers would adversely impact all involved companies, likely erasing Intuitive Machines’ stock gains and stalling the IPO prospects of Firefly and ispace.

Regardless of the outcome, the next three months promise to be a fascinating period in space exploration. All eyes will be on these companies as they embark on their lunar missions, shaking up the competitive landscape and potential investment avenues in the burgeoning space industry.