The correlation between the S&P 500 and former President Donald Trump’s victory odds has become increasingly noticeable as investors seek certainty in the midst of a tumultuous election season. With President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign facing significant challenges after a problematic television debate, investors are keenly observing whether a potential change in the Democratic ticket might influence the stock market’s trajectory.
A comprehensive analysis reveals that the market has shown a consistent trend aligning with Trump’s improving prospects. This phenomenon, identified by a leading technical strategist, underscores the market’s preference for stability over uncertainty. The strategist first highlighted this relationship in March, noting that as Trump’s chances of winning the election increased, the market appeared to find reassurance in the perceived predictability of his leadership.
This alignment does not necessarily indicate an endorsement of Trump’s policies by market participants. Rather, it reflects a broader aversion to uncertainty. When Trump’s odds of winning look favorable, the market seems to take solace in the predictability of his potential administration, much as it did earlier in 2024 when Biden was the favored candidate.
Throughout the current year, the market’s behavior has mirrored the changing dynamics of the presidential race. As Biden’s campaign has faltered, particularly following the June debate where his performance raised questions about his viability, the market has responded to the increasing likelihood of a Trump victory. Speculation about Biden’s candidacy has grown, with some political figures expressing concern over his ability to continue his campaign effectively. Meanwhile, betting markets have adjusted, reflecting a significant shift in expectations for the Democratic nominee, with Vice President Kamala Harris gaining traction as a potential replacement.
Recent polls have also shown a slight edge for Trump, although the race remains competitive. Notably, the three-month rolling correlation between Trump’s victory odds and the S&P 500 has been observed at 0.31. While not exceedingly high, this correlation is more pronounced than other significant economic factors, such as the relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500, which currently shows negligible influence on each other.
Analysts have also highlighted that the negative correlation between Biden’s standing in the polls and the S&P 500’s performance provides a more coherent explanation of stock market behavior than other variables, including oil prices, Federal Reserve policy, and inflation data. This underscores the unique impact that political stability and election prospects have on market sentiment.
The potential for a Trump victory, which could lead to an extension of his 2017 tax cuts and further deregulation, is seen by some market strategists as a positive development for certain sectors. Following the recent debate, there has been a noticeable interest in small-cap and cyclical stocks, which benefited from Trump’s initial term in office. However, current market conditions differ significantly from those in 2016. Analysts caution that the economic cycle is more mature now, necessitating a focus on high-quality, large-cap stocks. Moreover, the market’s previous reception of Trump’s policies was driven by a recovery from a downturn, whereas today, inflation poses a more significant concern.
The possibility of continued fiscal deficits, regardless of who wins, adds another layer of complexity. The debate’s aftermath saw a notable rise in Treasury yields, influenced by the prospect of extended tax cuts and other measures. Investors are advised to prepare for potential inflationary pressures that could arise from a Trump victory, considering strategies to safeguard their portfolios against such risks.
Election years historically bring heightened market volatility as November approaches. One key indicator to monitor is the market’s performance in the three months leading up to Election Day. Historical data reveals that in the past century, the market’s trajectory during this period has predicted the outcome of 20 out of 24 elections, with incumbents tending to win if the market rose, and lose if it fell.
As the election draws nearer, investors should stay vigilant, paying close attention to both political developments and market trends. The interplay between the presidential race and the stock market will likely continue to provide critical insights into the broader economic landscape and investment opportunities. With the current political climate being as unpredictable as ever, maintaining a balanced and informed approach will be essential for navigating the months ahead.
