Inflation cooled slightly in April, but the slower pace of price increases still underscores a significant economic challenge for President Biden as he heads into the 2024 campaign season. Prices, as measured by the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI), have risen over 19.4% since Biden took office. This cumulative increase has been a focal point for the GOP for months, and the latest data brings it perilously close to the 20% mark, a psychologically significant milestone.
Even before the official data crossed this threshold, the Trump campaign seized the opportunity. The campaign’s press secretary issued a statement declaring that “overall prices are up 20%.” Trump himself exaggerated the figures further, claiming in a video response that inflation “takes away 30% to 50% of every dollar you have,” although he did not provide any evidence to support this assertion.
President Biden responded to the latest report by reaffirming that controlling costs remains his top economic priority. He acknowledged the progress made but admitted that “we have a lot more to do.” For context, prices increased by just under 7.8% during Donald Trump’s four-year presidency. Economists highlight that the differences in inflation during the two administrations are influenced by a variety of factors beyond the control of the sitting president.
Under Trump, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted markets and drove down gas prices towards the end of his term. Conversely, Biden’s tenure has been marked by supply chain issues that have driven prices up in various sectors. Regardless of these factors, it is clear that cumulative inflation figures will be a major talking point for Trump and his allies in the coming months.
Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, remarked to Yahoo Finance that the higher prices and the “economic narrative here is pretty well baked in.” He emphasized that this dynamic is detrimental to Biden’s prospects in key states he needs to win, casting a shadow over his campaign.
Some in Trump’s circle assert that inflation under Biden is even higher. The super PAC Make America Great Again Inc., which supports Trump, claimed that prices have risen 19.9% since Biden took office. This discrepancy between the 19.4% and 19.9% figures stems from the group’s use of non-seasonally adjusted data, which shows a slightly higher increase. The group also highlighted various goods, such as gasoline, eggs, and airline tickets, which have seen even more significant price hikes over the last 40 months. This 19.9% figure was echoed by Republicans throughout the day on Wednesday. Elise Stefanik, chair of the House Republican Conference, tweeted, “#Bidenflation is a tax on ALL Americans,” while the Republican National Committee added, “That’s Bidenomics!”
The inflation issue has been a persistent challenge for Biden, with him and his allies often struggling to present a cohesive message. In a recent exclusive interview with Yahoo Finance, Biden was pressed on the nation’s sour economic mood. He discussed prices and repeated a false claim that inflation “was at 9% when I came in and it’s now down around 3%.” In reality, the year-over-year inflation rate was 1.4% when Biden took office. Prices did rise after his inauguration, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, over a year into his presidency. The latest data shows a current year-over-year inflation rate of 3.4%, a slight decrease from March’s 3.5%.
During his conversation with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi, Biden attributed part of the country’s unease to uncertainty, emphasizing the need for steady progress and the creation of jobs. He expressed confidence in his administration’s ability to handle the situation but acknowledged that it would “take a little more time.”
Whether voters will grant Biden that time remains to be seen. Polls consistently show inflation as the top economic concern among voters, even surpassing job creation. A survey last month from Blueprint 2024, a Democratic-aligned group, found that 91% of respondents considered inflation a “serious problem,” with 37% ranking it among “the most important issues.” In comparison, only 25% said the same about jobs and the economy.
As the 2024 campaign season progresses, it is evident that the inflation issue will be a central theme. Biden’s ability to address and mitigate these concerns will be crucial in shaping the political landscape and influencing voter sentiment.
