July 19, 2024

Bitcoin’s Future: $100,000 By Year’s End?

  • Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick predicts Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by end-2024 and potentially $200,000 by end-2025.
  • Bitcoin’s price could surge if Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, according to Kendrick.
  • Current Bitcoin price stagnation attributed to market uncertainty around US presidential candidates.

In a bold prediction for Bitcoin enthusiasts, Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick has set ambitious price targets for the cryptocurrency, suggesting it could soar to $100,000 by the end of 2024 and potentially double to $200,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast hinges on several factors, including institutional adoption and political developments in the United States.

Kendrick’s confidence stems from the recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC, which he believes will drive significant inflows into the market. He estimates that by the end of 2024, between 437,000 and 1.32 million Bitcoins could be held in US spot ETFs, translating to $50-100 billion in USD terms.

However, Kendrick’s latest note, published today, addresses the current stagnation in Bitcoin prices, despite favorable movements in Treasury yields that typically support Bitcoin’s price. He attributes this to the ongoing uncertainty in the US presidential election, particularly the increasing probability of President Biden stepping down or being replaced, which has created a “fat left tail event” in market terms.

Kendrick outlines two potential scenarios:

  1. Biden Remains in the Race: If Biden continues his campaign past the key date of August 4th, Kendrick expects Trump’s election probabilities to rise, leading to a Bitcoin rally. In this scenario, he predicts Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in August and $100,000 by the US election day.
  2. Biden Exits the Race: Should Biden step aside, Bitcoin prices might dip to $50,000-$55,000. The impact on Bitcoin will depend on the new Democratic candidate’s credibility. A strong candidate like Michelle Obama could keep Bitcoin prices subdued, while a weaker candidate might present a significant buying opportunity, potentially leading to a price rebound to $100,000 by election day.

In the interim, Kendrick advises watching for early moves in Bitcoin volatility and skew as indicators of market sentiment. With pivotal political events on the horizon, the cryptocurrency market could be in for a wild ride. Investors should stay informed and consider the broader macroeconomic and political landscape when making investment decisions.

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